New Issues in Indian Macro Policy

NIPFP Working Paper 51,

Ajay Shah
May, 2008

Abstract
Macroeconomic policy thinking in India has been rooted in an environment with five key parameters: agricultural shocks rather than a conventional business cycle, a closed economy, deeply distortionary tax policy coupled with a fiscal crisis, financial markets that lacked speculative price discovery, and a monetary policy shaped by deficit financing. This environment has been completely altered through India’s integration into the world economy, the rise of one financial market (the equity market), the reduced importance of the monsoon, the rise of conventional business cycle dynamics, a partial abatement of the fiscal crisis and a monetary policy environment with loss of autonomy owing to exchange rate pegging. These changes call for a rethink of the macroeconomic policy framework. The agenda of assuring fiscal stability needs to be seen to its conclusion. Monetary policy and fiscal policy need to be converted into tools for macroeconomic stabilisation.

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