Examining the Decoupling Hypothesis for India

NIPFP Working Paper 61
[PDF]

Shruthi Jayaram, Ila Patnaik, Ajay Shah
June 2009

Abstract
This paper examines the decoupling hypothesis for India. We analyse business cycle synchronisation between India and a set of industrial economies, particularly the United States, over the period 1992 to 2008. The evidence suggests that the Indian business cycle exhibits increasing co-movement with business cycles in industrial economies over this period. Indian business cycle synchronisation is stronger with industrial countries as a whole as opposed to the co-movement found with the US.

Indian Capital Control Liberalization: Evidence from NDF Markets

NIPFP Working Paper 60
[PDF]

Michael Hutchison, Jake Kendall, Gurnain Pasricha, Nirvikar Singh
April 2009

Abstract
The Indian government has taken a number of incremental measures to liberalise legal and administrative impediments to international capital movements in recent years. This paper analyses the extent to which the effectiveness of capital controls in India, measured by the domestic less net foreign interest rate differential (deviations from covered interest rate parity) have changed over time. We utilise the 3-month offshore non-deliverable forward (NDF) market to measure the effective foreign interest rate (implied NDF yield). Using the self exciting threshold autoregression (SETAR) methodology, we estimate a no-arbitrage bandwidth whose boundaries are determined by transactions costs and capital controls. Inside of the bands, small deviations from CIP follow a random walk process. Outside the bands, profitable arbitrage opportunities exist and we estimate an adjustment process back towards the boundaries. We allow for asymmetric boundaries and asymmetric speeds of adjustment (above and below the band thresholds), which may vary depending on how arbitrage activity is constrained by capital controls. We test for structural breaks, identify three distinct periods, and estimate these parameters over each sub-sample in order to capture the de facto effect of changes in capital controls over time. We find that de facto capital control barriers: (1) are asymmetric over inflows and outflows, (2) have changed over time from primarily restricting outflows to effectively restricting inflows (measured by bandwidths and positions); (3) arbitrage activity closes deviations from CIP when the threshold boundaries are exceeded in all sub-samples. In recent years, capital controls have been more symmetric over capital inflows and outflows and the deviations from CIP outside the boundaries are closed more quickly.

Financing Strategy for Achievement of the MDGs and Implementation of the Tenth Five Year Plan

NIPFP Working Paper 59
[PDF]

M. Govinda Rao, Anuradha Seth, Chewang Rinzin
March 2009

Fiscal Health of Selected Indian Cities

NIPFP Working Paper 58
[PDF]

Simanti Bandyopadhyay, M. Govinda Rao
March 2009

Abstract
The paper aims to assess the fiscal health of five urban agglomerations (UAs) in India viz. Delhi, Hyderabad, Kolkata, Chennai, and Pune. Our sample consists of five corporations and sixty three smaller Urban Local Bodies (ULBs) dispersed in thirteen districts of five major states. The main objective of the paper is twofold. First, to review the status of revenue generation and expenditure responsibilities of the constituent ULBs. Second, to assess the magnitudes of their fiscal gaps by estimating the expenditure needs and revenue capacities and give some useful recommendations to reduce these gaps. Data on ULB finances for the financial year 2004-05 collected through surveys are used for the analysis. For estimation of expenditure needs the updated financial norms on the selected services specified by Zakaria Committee are used as benchmarks. For revenue capacity estimations Gross City Products (GCPs) are estimated from non-agricultural components of the District Domestic Products (DDPs). Revenue capacities are estimated by applying a tax-to-GCP ratio, which is higher than that existing in a ULB by a politically feasible margin, on the estimated GCPs. The main findings suggest that excepting five small ULBs in Hyderabad, the others are not in a position to cover their expenditure needs by their present revenue collections. All the UAs have unutilised potentials for revenue generations but with the exception of one UA i.e., Hyderabad, all the others would fail to cover their expenditure needs, even if they realise their revenue potentials. In all the UAs, except Chennai, bigger corporations are more constrained than the smaller ULBs. Besides, concrete evidence in support of the efficiency of parastatal agencies in sharing the burden of responsibilities cannot be established. The paper recommends better utilisation of ’own revenue’ handles of the cities, by improved administration of the property taxes, implementation of other taxes, and collection of user charges. The option of state governments to allow the local bodies piggybacking a small proportion on their VAT collections can also be explored. Another way to reduce the fiscal gap would be to earmark a portion of the sales proceeds from land and housing by state governments sold through their development agencies for improvement in the infrastructure of the cities. The paper also recommends that the State Finance Commissions (SFCs) should develop appropriate norms for estimating expenditure needs based on which transfers from the state to local governments can be decided.

Goods and Services tax for India

NIPFP Working Paper 57
[PDF]

R. Kavita Rao
November, 2008

The Interface between Economic Development Health and Environment in India: An Econometric Investigation

NIPFP Working Paper 56
[PDF]

A.L. Nagar,Amit Shovon Ray, Aprna Sawhney, Sayan Samanta
October, 2008

Abstract
This paper analyses interrelationships between ‘economic development’, ‘health’, and ‘environment’ in a simultaneous equations framework. Four structural equations have been postulated to explain changes in four endogenous variables in terms of several predetermined variables. The endogenous variables chosen for the model are GDPPC (per capita gross domestic product), LE (life expectancy), NOCRD (number of cases of respiratory diseases) and PM10 (respirable suspended particulate matter). We assume that GDPPC describes economic development prominently and, therefore, use it as one of the endogenous variables in lieu of economic development. LE and NOCRD are assumed to reflect health effects in the economy, and PM10 is used as a proxy of environmental stress. The four endogenous variables are supposed to be jointly determined in terms of several exogenous variables represented through indices of physical infrastructure (PI), social infrastructure (SI) and air pollution index (API). We construct the three indices by the principal components method and thus effectively use only these three predetermined (exogenous) variables to simultaneously determine changes in the four endogenous variables listed above. The model is postulated in loglinear form and estimated by the two-stage least-squares method using data from the Indian economy 1980-81 to 2004-05. It follows from the estimated structural equations that while physical infrastructure is significant in determining GDPPC, the GDPPC is also directly influenced by improved health outcomes like longevity (LE) and lower morbidity from respiratory diseases (NOCRD). The long term health outcome (LE) is determined by the level of per capita GDP and it is positively affected by social infrastructure. The third structural equation shows that the immediate, or short run, health outcomes like morbidity from respiratory disorders are influenced by environmental stress (PM10) besides the level of GDPPC. Finally, the environmental stress (PM10) is determined by the level of per capita GDP and the air pollution index (API) representing various sources of air pollution. It is true that our simplified model illustrates the effects of specific type of air pollutant, viz., respirable particulate matter, however, it is among the most significant environmental problems threatening human health in India. Nevertheless, there is scope to build more comprehensive environmental stress indices which reflect surface water quality, ground water quality, soil pollution etc. which have feedback effects with health and economic development. Also many of the components of PI, SI and API may not be truly exogenous in a larger model (e.g. transport and communication in PI, education and health care systems in SI, and industrial production, vehicular traffic, urbanisation in API.) The two weaknesses of our model stem from data limitation and a concern to simplify the model. Although our model is highly simplified, nonetheless, it provides key insights into the nature of economic development in India during the last 25 years: First, the environmental stress has had a high cost on income and health  from the derived reduced form, a 1 percent increase in the air pollution index leads to a decrease of about 8 percent in the per capita income, a decrease of about 0.7 percent in the life expectancy, and an increase of about 19 percent in the number of cases of respiratory diseases. Second, the social infrastructure plays a more vital role in economic development, health, and environment than the physical infrastructure, since the absolute values of elasticities of endogenous variables with respect to SI are invariably greater than those with respect to PI. Although physical infrastructure is important for economic development, it comes in the last of our preference order. In the final run-up, there is need to pay more attention to provide better social infrastructure and to reduce air pollution.

Issues Before the Thirteenth Finance Commission

NIPFP Working Paper 55
[PDF]

M. Govinda Rao, Tapas Kumar Sen and Pratap R. Jena
August, 2008

Abstract
The Thirteenth Finance Commission faces challenging times. Despite improvement, the fiscal situation continues to be a matter of concern when off budget liabilities and other fiscal risks are considered. In the changing situation of increasing oil prices on the one hand and surge in capital flows on the other, calibrating the transfer system in tune with counter-cyclical fiscal policy stance is a formidable challenge.

The paper argues that irrespective of the wording of the Terms of Reference (ToR), the Commission would do well to focus on its primary task of recommending transfers to serve the objective of equity and incentives. While it is required to take into account a number of considerations, the focus should be on the transfer system. As an impartial body, the Commission should make a fair assessment of the union as well as state governments, ignoring the asymmetries in the wording of the ToR.

As regards the transfer system itself is concerned, the paper argues that
although it may be difficult to make drastic changes in the relative shares of the states, the Commission should give up the gap filling approach. Instead, after recommending the tax devolution, the Commission should recommend grants to fully equalise expenditures on elementary education and basic healthcare. It is also possible to incentivise the transfer system for even those states that have a better record of providing education and healthcare to improve quality of these services. If necessary, the tax devolution percentage can be appropriately adjusted to ensure equalisation of social services.