Determination of Interest Rate in India: Empirical Evidence on Fiscal Deficit-Interest Links and Financial Crowding Out

NIPFP Working Paper 110
[PDF]

Lekha Chakraborty
December 2012

Abstract

Controlling for the capital flows, using the high frequency macrodata of financially deregulated regime, the paper examined whether there is any evidence of fiscal deficit determining interest rate in the context of India. The period of analysis is FY 2006-07[04] to FY 2011[04]. Quite contrary to the debates in the policy circles, the results found that increase in fiscal deficit does not cause the rise in interest rates. Using the asymmetric vector autoregressive model, it is established that the rate of interest is affected by the reserve money changes, expected inflation and volatility in the capital flows, but not the fiscal deficit. This result has significant policy implications for interest rate determination in India. The long term and short term interest rates are analysed to determine the occurrence of financial crowding out, but fiscal deficit does not appear to be causing both shorts and longs.

How Indian Voters Respond to Candidates with Criminal Charges: Evidence from the 2009 Lok Sabha Elections

NIPFP Working Paper 109
[PDF]

Bhaskar Dutta and Poonam Gupta
October 2012

Abstract

This paper examines the response of voters to candidates who have reported that they have criminal charges against them, within the framework of a simple analytical model which assumes that criminal charges give rise to some stigma amongst the electorate, and result in a negative effect on vote shares. Campaigning, the cost of which is borne from candidates’ wealth, helps a candidate to increase his or her expected vote share by winning over the “marginal” voter. A criminal candidate gets an additional benefit since he can use the campaigning to convince voters of his innocence, and so reduce the negative effects of the stigma associated with criminal charges. We test the implications of the model using data for the 2009 Lok Sabha elections in India, and find support for all the implications of the model. Our empirical results show that voters do penalise candidates with criminal charges; however, this negative effect is reduced if there are other candidates in the constituency with criminal charges; besides, the vote shares are positively related to candidate wealth, with the marginal effect being higher for the candidates with criminal charges.

A Cost-Benefit Analysis of Aadhaar

National Institute of Public Finance and Policy
November 2012
[Link]

Abstract

This study estimates the costs and benefits of Aadhaar. We find that substantial benefits would accrue to the government by integrating Aadhaar with schemes such as PDS, MNREGS, fertiliser and LPG subsidies, as well as housing, education and health programmes. The benefits arise from the reduction in leakages that occur due to identification and authentication issues. Our analysis takes into account the costs of developing and maintaining Aadhaar, and of integrating Aadhaar with the schemes over the next ten years. Even after taking all costs into account, and making modest assumptions about leakages, of about 7-12 percent of the value of the transfer/subsidy, we find that the Aadhaar project would yield an internal rate of return in real terms of 52.85 percent to the government.

Diesel Pricing in India: Entangled in Policy Maze

NIPFP Working Paper 108
[PDF]

Mukesh Kumar Anand
October 2012

Abstract

This paper identifies the important economic activities that use diesel and discusses the contribution of those sectors in GDP. Other important petroleum products and, their limited substitution possibility in the extant technological setting are highlighted. The modal-mix for transportation in India is also discussed. The relevant policy agenda for diesel in the vision statement for hydrocarbon sector is presented along with a summary on evolution of petroleum products pricing regimes. The importance of petroleum taxes for public finance at the federal and provincial levels is discussed in the context of wider reforms in administration of taxes. The impact of changes in diesel and / or petroleum prices, including taxes and subsidies, is explored along a few dimensions. Cost of diesel (and / or petroleum products) as a proportion of total cost of production is presented for certain users / sectors, and some suggestions on reform imperatives are offered.

Bihar: What Went Wrong? And What Changed?

NIPFP Working Paper 107
[PDF]

Arnab Mukherji and Anjan Mukherji
September 2012

New Thinking on Corporate Bond Market in India

NIPFP Working Paper 106
[PDF]

Sanjay Banerji, Krishna Gangopadhyay, Ila Patnaik and Ajay Shah
September 2012

Energy Savings Potential and Policy for Energy Conservation in Selected Indian Manufacturing Industries

NIPFP Working Paper 105
[PDF]

Manish Gupta and Ramprasad Sengupta
September 2012

Abstract

Minimization of damage from the rising trend of global warming would warrant two kinds of action for a country like India: a) abatement of greenhouse gas emissions and b) adaptation to climate change so as to reduce climate change related vulnerability of the people. The target of low carbon economic growth of India in terms of declining energy and carbon intensity of GDP assumes, therefore, a special significance in such context. Of the different options for lowering carbon intensity of GDP, the option of energy conservation through reduced energy intensity of output happens to be cheaper in most cases than the carbon free energy supply technology options. As the industrial sector has the largest sectoral share of final energy consumption in India this paper focuses on the assessment of energy savings potential in seven highly energy consuming industries. The paper estimates the energy savings potential for each of these industries using unit level Annual Survey of Industries data for 2007-08. The paper further develops an econometric model admitting substitutability among energy and other non-energy inputs as well as that among fuels using translog cost function for the selected industries and also for the manufacturing sector as a whole to study the behavioural response of the industries to changes in factor prices or fuel prices. The model uses time series data at the aggregate level of the concerned industry for the period 1991-92 to 2008-09. The results of the model point mostly to the significant response of energy consumption to own price increases and to the insignificance of the responsiveness of the corresponding capital requirement to effect such energy conservation. Besides, a large part of the growth of factor productivity as estimated by the model has been found to be induced by energy price changes, the price neutral component of technical change being negligible. All these have important policy significance in respect of the relevance and direction of fiscal, monetary or other policy instruments for energy conservation in India for abating global warming.