Health Care Financing Reforms in India

NIPFP Working Paper 100
[PDF]

M. Govinda Rao and Mita Choudhury
March 2012

The Second Fundamental Theorem of Positive Economics

NIPFP Working Paper 98
[PDF]

Anjan Mukherji
March 2012

Abstract

Welfare Economics is fortunate that there are two Fundamental Theorems of Welfare Economics. Positive Economics on the other hand is seemingly endowed with none. One of the fundamental results of Positive Economics is that a competitive equilibrium exists under fairly general conditions; this then may be called the First Fundamental Theorem of Positive Economics (FFTPE). The existing results on uniqueness and stability of competitive equilibrium are far too restrictive to be up for consideration as a Fundamental Theorem. It is to re-examine this question that we revisit the question of stability of competitive equilibrium. It is shown that if, for all distributions of the aggregate endowment, the matrix sum of the Jacobian of the excess demand function plus its transpose, evaluated at the equilibrium, have maximal rank then equilibria will be locally asymptotically stable. When this condition is not met, it is shown how redistributing resources will always make a competitive equilibrium price configuration stable and this need not involve redistributing endowments so that trades do not exist at equilibrium. This last result is quite general and the only requirement is that the rank condition referred to earlier hold at zero trade competitive equilibria and consequently may qualify to be called the Second Fundamental Theorem of Positive Economics (SFTPE).

Oil Price Shock, Pass-through Policy and its Impact on India

NIPFP Working Paper 99
[PDF]


N R Bhanumurthy, Surajit Das and Sukanya Bose
March 2012

Abstract

This paper analyses the impact of transmission of international oil prices and domestic oil price pass-through policy on major macroeconomic variables in India with the help of a macroeconomic policy simulation model. Three major channels of transmission viz. import channel, price channel and fiscal channel are explored with the help of a comparative static macroeconomic general equilibrium framework. The policy option of deregulation of domestic oil prices in the scenario of occurrence of a one-time shock in international oil prices as well as no oil price shock situation analysed through its impact on growth, inflation, fiscal balances and external balances during the 12th Plan period of 2012-13 to 2016-17. The simulation results indicate that the deregulation policy as such would have adverse impact on the growth as well as on the inflation. But if this policy is complemented with the policy of switching of subsidy bill to capital expenditure might result in positive growth effects only in the medium term. Given, the current pass-through policy, one-time oil shock has more intense adverse impact on growth and inflation in the year of shock while it mitigates slowly over time. The model shows that with the oil shock and with current partial pass-through regime, a 10% rise in oil prices result in a 0.6 per cent fall in growth while in the full pass-through situation, it can reduce the growth by 0.9 per cent. Overall, the paper argues that the pass-through has differential impact on growth and inflation over the 12th Plan period. Hence, the policy of oil price deregulation must be carefully weighed and prioritized.